Energy Finance News Review
On August 4th, National Development and Reform Commission ("NDRC") announced <<The Notice On Strengthening Core Competing Force of Manufacturing Industry>>, proposing to strive to organize and implement key project aiming at strengthening core competing force of manufacturing industry in short time in six fields of rail traffic equipment, high-end ship and ocean engineering equipment, industrial robot, new energies (electric) automobiles, modern agricultural machineries, and high-end medical equipment and medicine, etc. The <<Notice>> requires that efforts be made to encourage social capital to participate in the construction for key projects.
It is learned from NDRC on August 5th that, since the beginning of this year, the key legislations of NDRC have been promoted in order. And among which, the <<The Law of Development Planning>>, <<Law of Cereals>>, <<Law of Electric Power>> (Revision), <<Law of Energy>>, and <<Administration Rules on Governmental Ratification and Filing over Investment Project>> are all in form of drafts and are being submitted to State Council and, NDRC is cooperating with the Law Office of the State Council in reviewing the legislation. According to NDRC in the second half of this year, it will cooperate with the office in requesting the State Council to review and discus the <<Governmental Investment Rules>> and try to get it announced before the end of this year.
On the 7th, NDRC announced the developments of energy-saving and reduction in China in the first half of year which shows the unit GDP energy consumption countrywide fell 5.9% compared with that of the same time period of last year, and the total emissions of sulfur dioxide, oxygen needed by chemistry, ammonia nitrogen, and nitrogen oxide continued to fall fast, and the general situations over energy-saving and reductions were smooth. On energy, structural adjustment continued and, in the first half of this year, raw coal output fell 5.8% compare with that of the same time period of last year, the output of natural gas and crude oil maintained steady growth, renewable energy development was accelerated, and energy structure was further optimized.
Energy Finance Data Analysis
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Coal & Power
Coal & Power News Review
In the first half of this year, influenced by the slipping industrial power consumption, industrial structural adjustment, temperature and rainfall, etc, the whole society power consumption increased 1.3% compare with that of the same time period of last year, though rebounded a little bit month by month in second quarter; the second industry power consumption fell 0.5% compare with that of the same time period of last year, in which the power consumed by ferrous metal smelter and construction material fell 8.2% and 15.7% respectively compare with that of the same time period of last year, the major reason behind the fall in second industry power consumption; the power consumption by third industry rose 8.1%, in which information industry consumption maintained rising trends; the power consumed by residents both in countryside and urban rose 4.8%, in which the increase in second quarter was 7.4%, rose 4.8% on a month on month basis.
By the end of June, power generation installed capacity was near 1.4 billion KW, power supply capacity was sufficient, the power generated by non-fossil energy rose 16%, coal-fired power generations fell for twelve months continuously compare with that of the same time period of last year, and equipment availability hours continued to fall compare with that of the same time period of last year. The power supply across the country was more lax and operation was more stable and safe.
By giving comprehensive consideration on the macro-economical situations, temperature and benchmark as well as electric energy replacement, etc, it is forecasted the growth in power consumption in second half of this year is expected to rebound as a whole. And it is predicted the whole society power consumption in whole year shall be between 5.64 trillion KWh to 5.75 trillion KWh, rise between 2% to 4% compare with that of the same time period of last year, with growth rate below that of last year. The major uncertain factors affecting forecast are, firstly the implementation of the measures that “Stabilize Growth”, and secondly the difficult in making judgment as a result of climate factor during the time of “Face Peaking Demand and Spend Summer.”
It is forecasted that in 2015 the newly added power generation installed capacity for infrastructural construction shall exceed 100 million KW, in which the share for non-fossil energy power generation capacity newly installed shall exceed 53%. It is predicted the power generation installed capacity across the country shall be 1.47 billion KW by the end of the year, rise for about 7.5% with that of the same time period of last year, in which the share for the power generation capacity newly installed for non-fossil energy shall rise for about 35%.
Coal & Power Data Analysis
Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index (BSPI) (Unit: yuan / ton).
Published：Aug 5, 2015
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas News Review
As reported by Reuters, Saudi Arabia is actively raising its refinery capacity, which, as predicted, shall force other refineries to lower down operation rate and intensify the oil surplus, and so the price for crude oil won`t rebound in near term.
As reported by foreign media, SinoPec and China Oil will, begin around October, explore oil in two oilfields in southwestern Iran, and the capacity of the exploration can be 160 thousand barrels per day.
China Oil, the largest natural gas producer in China, is said to be providing floating price to its large-type industrial customers and is committing to secure supply in whole year so as to boost up sales under the background where demands is falling and supply is sufficient.
It is said that SinoPec plans to reduce its monthly crude oil processing volume down to around one million tons, which is about 244 thousand barrels per day, and the output reduction is planned to begin from October.
China Oil and Chemical Industry Association predicts that the annual oil and gas consumptions in 2015 is expected to reach around 713 million tons (oil equivalent), a 4.6% rise compared with that of the same period of last year, and the total quantity of major chemicals rise about 5%. With the international oil price hitting bottom and rebounding, industrial total demand has rebounded a little bit, and the economical growth for petrochemical industry is turning to be good.
The building of the “Ocean Petroleum 982”, the deep water semi-submerge drilling platform invested by China Off-shore Oilfield Service Company Limited and built by Ocean engineering Company Limited of Dalian Ship heavy-Duty Group has been commenced in July and is expected to be delivered for use in the second half of 2016.
Oil & Gas Data Analysis
Major energy commodity price(8.3-8.7) (Unit: RMB Yuan)
New Energy News Review
The rap-session over solar energy thermal power generation industrial development was held in Qinghai most recently. And it is learned that National Energy Administration (“NEA”) shall focus on promoting solar energy thermal power generation in four aspects like planning guidance, pilot project, supportive policy on tariff, etc, and technological breakthrough, etc.
After the issuance of The Opinions On Promoting Application and Upgrading of Advanced Photovoltaic Technological Products, the capital appealing project, i.e. the first project that has won “Front-Runner”, i.e. “State Advanced Technology Photovoltaic Pilot Base in the Sinking Areas of Datong, Shanxi” was signed on August 3rd, which means the plan for the first “Front-Runner” of photovoltaic industry in China is implemented.
Although the domestic industrial added-value in the first half of this year is lower than the growth of GDP, photovoltaic industry rose against the trends. NEA announced not long ago the estimates over Chinese photovoltaic industry data and predicted that the interconnected photovoltaic capacity in the first half of this year would be between 7 GW and 8 GW, and the installed capacity in the second half of this year would be between 12 GW and 13 GW, with the installed capacity in whole year exceeds that of last year.
It has been basically decided that the objectives for new energies in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” shall be raised, and market anticipates, in general, the development objectives for relevant industries shall be raised much above that expected by the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”(by year 2020, 200 million KW wind power and 100 million KW solar energy), and solar energy power generations is expected to reach 150 million KW, while wind power be between 250 million KW and 280 million KW, though however, the rising magnitude is still in disputes.
It can be seen from the relevant data contained in <<The Electric Power Operations From January to June of 2015>> that the wind power pattern in China is shifting towards middle-eastern part and, wind abandon still exists in the three northern regions where wind power is concentrated. And as expressed by experts, shift the wind power pattern from “Three-Northern Region” to middle-eastern region is an effective route for taking and consuming wind power.
The data as announced by the Ministry of Industrial Information and Technology on August 5th shows that the new energies automobiles produced in July was 20.4 thousand, rise 2.5 folds over that of the same time period of last year. And as of now, the cumulative output for the new energies automobiles produced in China in the first seven months reached 98.9 thousand, rise folds over that of the same time period of last year.
New Energy Data Analysis
International Solar Price (Unit: USD)
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