15 Chinese and international research institutes forecast the second quarter GDP in China will grow by 10.5%, which is 0.1% down than the first quarter; CPI will grow by 7.8%, which is 0.2% down than the first quarter, revealed the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University (CCER) in its Langrun Forecast released on the 27th of April.
According to the Langrun Forecast, the industrial value added in the second quarter is forecasted to grow by 16.4%, fixed assets investment will grow by 26.2%, total retail sales will grow by 20.4%, export to grow by 10.5% and import to grow by 24.4% and the exchange rate between RMB and US dollar is 6.83:1.
As to the question if the interest rate will be raised in the second quarter, there are major differences in the opinions of the 13 institutions involved in the forecast. 6 institutions forecast the basic rate for the 1 year fixed deposit will increase by 27 points to 4.41, while the other 7 institutions don't believe there will be an interest rise.
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