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Weekly Review 2014-09-30


2014-10-29 16:24:01


Energy Finance

Energy Finance News Review

Next year shall be the last year for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, and the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” is being compiled by the agencies both from central government and local government actively. Recently, National Development and Reform Commission (“NDRC”) convened a rap-session on economical situation and a rap-session on the basic mindset for compiling the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. And people in the circle have pointed out that the purpose of NDRC in convening the rap-sessions is to do an in-depth analysis on the current economical situation, prepare well the economical work for the remaining months of this year and the economical work for next year, and grasp time to study the basic mindset for drafting the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. In addition, the website of NDRC has announced the catalogue of the key topics to be studied during the initial phase of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, including macro-economy, education, agriculture, real estate, and state-owned enterprise reform, etc. In June of this year, NDRC also initiated the Wechat platform for public to provide suggestions on the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, collect the suggestions and comments from the mass about the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, and to have the suggestions and comments sorted out and published periodically.

On trading, Ministry of Commerce has opened green light in large scale, adopted the free expressing policy, and removed or delegated one third of the items that were subjected to administrative review and approval, which has made trading and investment a lot more convenient. The 11 items removed by the Ministry of Commerce involved foreign trade, foreign investment, aid to foreign countries, and domestic trading, etc. For example, the removal of the item “the future transactions on foreign commodity conducted by domestic entity or individual is subject to review and ratification” has simplified the review and ratification procedures for the domestic enterprise engaging in the future and hedging business abroad and, as a result, market has been vitalized significantly. And another example, in November 2013, the Ministry of Commerce officially removed the item “the review and approval for the agency that handles international tendering activity for mechanical and electrical product” has fully opened the agencying market for international tendering for mechanical and electrical products. Through reformation, enterprises have become more active in engaging in agencying on tendering activity, and the lawful rights and interests for the enterprises in engaging in market competition has got better protection.

Energy Finance Data Analysis

China5e • Energy Index is a vane of China energy industry development condition, it includes Energy Composite Index, Oil & Gas Index, Power Index, Coal Index and New Energy Index.

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  22- Sept 23- Sept 24- Sept 25- Sept 26- Sept
Energy Composite Index 955.69 959.90 972.12 972.20 972.56
Oil & Gas Index 977.62 979.72 988.02 985.68 982.07
Coal Index 726.97 731.38 747.94 744.88 745.79
Power Index 1093.48 1098.42 1113.29 1118.28 1126.70
New Energy Index 1425.67 1458.65 1499.49 1533.04 1566.93

*  Energy Index of A Week

  22- Sept 23- Sept 24- Sept 25- Sept 26- Sept
Shanghai Composite Index 2289.87 2309.72 2343.58 2345.10 2347.72
Shenzhen Composite Index 7895.87 7965.89 8100.22 8076.51 8072.88
RMB Exchange Rate ($) 6.1485 6.147 6.1462 6.1497 6.1508

*  Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Index of A Week

Coal & Power

Coal & Power News Review

The data announced by National Energy Administration most recently shows that, in August, the power consumed by whole society was 502.5 billion KWh, fell by 1.5% compared with that of the same time period of previous month, and was the first negative Growth” seen in this year. According to experts, the slowdown of power consumption is, on the one hand, related to weather factor, while on the other hand, is due to the slowdown of economical growth which is resulted from the progress achieved in the economical structure adjustment in China.

The conspicuous fall of power consumption is closely related to the adjustment in industrial field. In the power consumption structure in August, the power consumed by industrial sector fell by 1.6% compared with that of the same time period of last year, and the growth rate fell by 4.5% compared with that of the previous month, which matches with the industrial operation data in August, as announced most recently. The data from State Statistics Bureau shows that, in August, the added value for scaled industry rose by 6.9% compared with that of the same time period of last year, and the growth rate fell by 2.1% compared with that of July.

It is learned that, the energy consumption by industrial sector in China takes up about 70% of the total energy consumption and, in which the energy consumption for high energy consumption industries like steel, cement, and petro-chemical takes up about half of the energy consumed by industrial sector and, therefore, the fluctuation of power consumption has a lot to do with the productions in these industries.

It is not hard to find that the pressure faced by current economy, if one observes comprehensively the recent data concerning the economy, industry, and investments in China. However, from the medium and long term perspective, the effect f economical structure adjustment has initially shown up, and so the data fluctuation in short term won`t impede the smooth operation of Chinese economy.

According to experts, the specific weight of consumptions and service industries is increasing amid economical structure adjustment and, it is normal that the indication about the power consumption in July and August fluctuated. It is predicted that the power demands in China shall grow in one digit level in a period of time.

Coal & Power Data Analysis

      Heat
Port
5800K 5500K 5000K 4500K
秦皇岛Qinhuangdao 520-530 475-485 420-430 375-385
黄骅Huanghua 530-540 480-490 420-430 370-380
天津Tianjin 525-535 470-480 420-430 375-385
曹妃甸Caofeidian 525-535 475-485 415-425 370-380
国投京唐港
SDIC Jingtang
520-530 480-490 420-430 375-385
京唐港Jingtang 515-525 475-485 415-425 375-385

*  Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index (BSPI) (Unit: yuan / ton).
Published:Sept 24, 2014

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas News Review

Most recently, the leaders from multiplex private oil businesses have appealed that promoting business transformation in private oil businesses and establishing as soon as possible the open-up system for crude oil import right are the key conditions for market open-up and, in the meantime they have appealed to exercise the transparent regulatory policy like “Easy Access and Strict Regulating”. The people in the business circle believe that the opening-up of crude oil imports is the key point for petro-chemical industry reformation, which can break industrial monopoly and prosper the chemical industry.

The report released by China Oil Economy and Technology Research Institute recently points out that the axis center for global energy pattern has shown such a trend that the center is shifting from middle east to west hemisphere. And since 2000, the ever hiking oil price has created conditions for large scale development of unconventional petroleum resources, and the value of unconventional oil and gas resources like oil sand, shale oil and shale gas, liquefied natural gas and deep sea oil and gas has taken up 50% of the future value of the energy giants.

After October, the domestic product oil market shall face a wave of oil product upgrading, in which, on October 1, the gasoline in whole Guangdong province shall be upgraded up to State Standard V, and the diesel for whole Jiangsu province (except Nanjing) shall be upgraded up to State standard IV, while the gasoline and diesel in whole Shannxi province shall be upgraded up to State Standard V. And along with the oil product upgrading are the issues concerning oil product resource supply, price hiking and market demands, etc.

The analysis report most recently released by Platts Energy Information shows that, in August the apparent oil demands in China was 41.19 million tons, i.e. 9.74 million barrels per day by average, rose for 3.7% compared with that of the same time period of last year, the highest growth rate seen in recent one year. The apparent oil demands in China in August rose for 1.4% compared with that in July. In the first eight months of this year, there were four months during which China turned out to be a net export country from a traditional net import country in terms of product oil, which reflected a weak domestic demand for diesel, while diesel is the largest part in the overall domestic oil consumption.

Oil & Gas Data Analysis

Date WTI Brent OPEC
2014-9-22 91.52 96.97 94.37
2014-9-23 92.21 96.85 94.31
2014-9-24 92.80 96.95 94.18
2014-9-25 92.53 97.00 94.25
2014-9-26 93.54 97.00 -

*  World Crude Oil Price Table

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Commodity Original price of the beginning of the week (Yuan) Price at the end of the week (Yuan) Change
LPG 6040.29 6133.24 +1.54%
ULP 8510.57 8510.57 0.00%
M15 7845.00 7840.00 -0.06%
Diesel Fuel 7429.41 7432.35 +0.04%
fuel oil 4220.00 4215.00 -0.12%
LNG 4373.08 4350.00 -0.53%
 

*   Major energy commodity price(9.22-9.26) (Unit: Yuan)

New Energy

New Energy News Review

The latest data released by China Photovoltaic Industry Confederation shows that, in the first half of 2014, the total shipments of solar energy crystalline silicon in mainland China was 18.0 GWp, rose by 20% compared with that of the same time period of last year. And the capacity exported to 24 countries and regions was 4.6 GWp, with total value of 1.112 billion US Dollars. In the first half of this year, the crystalline silicon solar energy cells made in mainland China was exported to more than 92 countries and regions, with total capacity of 1.4 GWp and total value of 520 million US Dollars.

To promote healthy development of wind power equipment manufacturing industry, National Energy Administration recently published the <<Notice on the Requirements about Standardizing the Market Order for Wind Power Equipment>> which defines that the agencies of each level of governments shall neither propose in any form the stipulations that restrict and repel the businesses from other places in tendering and procurement activity nor perform regional blockade and industrial monopoly by allocating wind project development resources. 

The Comprehensive Department under National Energy Administration recently published the [2014] No. 684 notice with captioned words as Guo Neng Zong Gui Hua calling for better preparation for the specific work relating to the emerging industry (Energy) of investment and strategic nature that fall into the budget from central government. For the project satisfactory to conditions, the key support shall be given to equipment input, the subsidy shall not exceed 10% of the supported investment and capped at 50 million Yuan.

Since July of this year, multiplex agencies have proposed new policies relating to new energies vehicle. A few days ago, the Ministry of Traffic and Transportation published the <<Opinions about Facilitating the Promotion and Application of New Energies Vehicle (the draft soliciting opinions)>> requiring that, by year 2020, new energies vehicle shall take up no less than 30% among the public bus, taxis and city logistic delivery vehicles to be newly added or renewed in “Public Transportation City”.

Miao Yu, Minister of Ministry of Industrial Technology and Information expressed a few days ago that the ministry had sorted out 25 main tasks based on <<Guiding Opinions about Facilitating Promotion and Application of New Energies Vehicle>> with each of the tasks be led by a specific department, and expressed to propose policy and measures and timeline for finishing the tasks.

New Energy Data Analysis

Product High Low Average Change
Polysilicon 23.50 19.00 20.340 0%
Polysilicon(156mm x 156mm) 1.03 0.87 0.898 0%
Monocrystalline silicon
(156mm x 156mm)
1.40 1.10 1.170 0%
Battery 0.46 0.29 0.314 0%
Polysilicon battery
(156mm x 156mm)
1.65 1.38 1.535 0%
Monocrystalline silicon battery
(156mm x 156mm)
2.10 1.69 1.780 0%
Silicon Components 0.80 0.53 0.575 0.52%
Thin-film PV modules 0.80 0.60 0.708 0%
Concentrator photovoltaic modules 2.55 2.09 2.303 0%
PV inverter 0.25 0.10 0.182 0%

*  International Solar Price (Unit: USD)

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